Analysing form

The following considers the difficulties encountered in analysing horse form to determine runners` winning chances and identifying value bets. Although based on Australian racing, the fundamental principles apply worldwide.

Track Conditions

Different horses perform differently depending on the underfoot conditions, with some performing poorly in wet conditions, whilst others show a dislike for very firm tracks. This can be assessed by analysing previous performance levels on varying surfaces. However, the fundamental error made by many form students is that some horses improve on wet or firm surfaces. The fact is that some horses fail to act in extreme conditions, giving the impression that those that handle the surface have improved.

Bare Form

In form analysis, the initial consideration needs to be a horse`s inherent ability, which gives a vague idea of its winning chance in a particular race. Whilst some form analysts attach particular significance to other factors such as pace, these are secondary considerations that may influence a horse`s potential performance, but only after its natural level of ability and scope for improvement has been considered.

Collateral Form

An assessment of "collateral" form is not merely looking at a runner`s recent wins and places, but knowledge of the previous and subsequent performances of the opposition against which it has competed. Such knowledge leads to a relatively straightforward assessment of the "true class" of the race, rather than working from the class advertised in the race conditions. Suppose a Class 2 race in country Victoria, worth $10,000 was to produce a handful of subsequent winners in quick succession. These winners suggest the form of the race is particularly strong, making other runners from the race worthy of close inspection on subsequent starts.

Pace, Speed and Pressure

These terms are often misconstrued by inexperienced form students. Speed refers to an individual horse`s ability, while pace is an indication of the likely tempo at which a race is run. These factors combine for likely pressure predictions. For example, a race with several horses possessing speed from the gate will produce a fast early pace with high pressure, whereas just a couple with early speed will produce the same pace, but with less associated pressure. Pace, along with barrier position, is vastly underrated by most form analysts and is often the difference between a horse winning and running poorly. The position a horse is able to take up in a race is often affected by its barrier position. Most race horses have favoured running styles, with front-runners, those racing up with the pace and others that like to come from off the pace. Anything that interferes with this preferred style can have a detrimental effect on performance

Identifying Value Bets

Having considered all the relevant factors and determined the respective winning chances of the runners in a race, the next step is to determine where the value lies in the betting market. The key is to convert the form assessment of a horse`s winning chance into a percentage. Once this is done, converting the percentage to value odds can be achieved with the simple formula:

Value Odds = 100 ÷ Percentage Winning Chance

For example, for a runner considered to have a winning chance of 50%:

Value Odds = 100 ÷ 50 (1 = 1), so a minimum price of Evens represents value.

Similarly, for a horse with a 20% winning chance:

Value Odds = 100 ÷ 20 (1 = 4), so $4.00 or better is value

In formulating a complete betting market for a race, the total should be 100%, not the 115% used by bookmakers and the Totalisator Agency Board.

The numerous factors influencing a horse race make the assessment of each runners’ chance a very time-consuming and difficult process, but long-term profits are dependent on taking all factors into account and there a no shortcuts. If you are looking at Australian racing, then go no further than the systems available at AustralianHorseRacingSystems. If you are looking at UK racing form analysis, then www.freeracingtips.co.uk can prove a valuable asset in winner finding.